Week 1 is always the most unpredictable week of the NFL season for me, and in some ways, it's the most aggravating.
The NFL gets year-round coverage and news cycles and attention more than any other sport. Hype becomes overhype. Expectations soar. So when the first week of the season comes along, fans think their team's new free-agent signings will mean a Super Bowl ring. Sometimes that's justified (i.e. Matthew Stafford), but mostly it's too early to tell (i.e. Julio Jones among many other). Week 1 can cause the biggest overreactions. Some of the good teams are not even close to the level of sharpness they will have later in the season; conversely, if a bad team wins, that's enough for their fans to be convinced it is playoff bound.
What Week 1 always reminds me is that NFL players don't automatically stay good all year long. I would say that's what preseason is for, but most starters don't even bother with the preseason, and it shows. I saw way more fumbles than normal. I saw two AFC teams commit special teams blunders that literally cost them victories. I saw fewer delays of game than I expected, but there were some. You know, in baseball or basketball, it's fine to need a few weeks to truly get into a groove. But NFL teams don't have that luxury. The lack of sharpness is perplexing, even for Week 1. Aside from shoddy performances, I'm convinced that lack of practice leads to more Week 1 injuries than usual, the same injuries players are afraid of suffering during the preseason. I'm not saying starters should treat preseason games as real games, but year in and year out these superstars prove that they are not skilled enough or built/conditioned well enough to just jump into high-intensity regular-season games cold turkey. There's got to be a better way.
What's more important, running backs or a strong running game?
The Niners lost Raheem Mostert for half the season, and the Ravens' running backs suffered the entire league's worth of season-ending injuries before the season even started, yet both teams had incredibly productive ground games in their respective starts the season. I'm not going to say running backs are expendable or a dime a dozen, but some teams hinge more of their running game on the blocking schemes, the playcalling, and versatility rather than featuring one back who gets 25 carries a game. With a league that skews so far to the passing game, a running game seems to be more valuable than a star running back these days.
Rookies v. Second-year QBs
Not a great day for rookie QBs, at least in the win-loss column. Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones all lost in their first starts, and Justin Fields, who had a few great snaps, was on the losing end. Trey Lance threw a TD on his first NFL pass, but that was all the action he really saw. I don't think the dual QB thing will work long-term, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Lance and Fields get more snaps in the red zone, when they can utilize their speed on read options to cap off drives with TDs. Rookies usually go through growing pains when they're just thrown out to the wolves. Lawrence showed some good things, and his mistakes seem like fixable things. Wilson had a rough outing, but it wasn't just him; the Jets are still bad (I sure hope Robert Saleh wishes he never left SF by season's end), so it's a little harder to judge him after that start.
Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa looked impressive even with the one bad ad-lib interception he threw. Jalen Hurts could be the real deal for the Eagles. Hopefully the Niners can slow him down enough next week. I like watching some of the young quarterback in this league take that leap. Hopefully those second-year guys will be good for many years to come.
Tampa Bay 31, Dallas 29
We've all seen Tom Brady do this before, yada yada yada. Brady's throw to Chris Godwin when the Bucs were all but lost saved the day, so of course no offensive pass interference was going to get called. But it should have been called. Still, the Cowboys could have left no doubts that they were the better team if not for the handful of lulls and mistakes that kept them from getting over the hump. The Cowboys confuse me. They have one of the best running backs in the game and a strong offensive line, but Prescott threw 58 passes instead. I'm not a Cowboys fans, so as someone on the outside looking in, I always worry there's some drama going on behind the scenes. I'm sure it's nothing. Hopefully Zeke gets more carries going forward (I'm sure that's what fantasy owners are saying, anyway).
Pittsburgh 23, Buffalo 16
The Steelers seem to find ways to win ugly games all the time. Their defense played lights out. TJ Watt deserved that big contract. Big Ben seems uneven, but somehow finds a way to deliver enough. But I will say, the Bills were in the driver's seat before giving away the game with the stupid blocked punt. I understand it's only Week 1, but Josh Allen was skiddish at times. He even admitted as much. He was throwing too high or too erratically at times. If he makes more of those plays, the Bills likely win that game. I'm rooting for him, though. He's an exciting player to watch. I just hope he takes that next leap.
Los Angeles C. 20, Washington 16
This game had the most bizarre call I saw all day. The Chargers were driving inside the red zone in the second half and really had a chance to take full control of the game. Justin Herbert dropped back for a pass and started his throwing motion when a defender (I think it was Chase Young) got his hand on the ball. The ball flew forward and landed a little short of the goal line (it was intended for a player in the end zone), then rolled out of the end zone. Incomplete pass, right? Right?!? Wrong! The referees ruled that a fumble! Are you kidding me? How does the ball go so far forward and not get deemed a forward pass? I understand the technicality of the "empty hand" during the passing motion, but come on, man, this is getting absurd. That clearly was an attempted pass. The arm was all the way forward. The Tuck Rule was a terrible enough call back in the day. Enough with the technicality crap.
P.S. Can we please come up with a REAL name for the "Football Team" instead of the stupidest name in all of sports?
New Orleans 38, Green Bay 3
Yeah, Aaron Rodgers was rusty. Yes, the offseason drama affected him more than he'll ever admit. New Orleans looked pretty good either way. Marshon Lattimore took Davante Adams down a notch. But there was one play that really affected the course of the game (I'm not saying it changed the winner) that should be talked about more than it will be.
The Saints were up 17-3 late in the third quarter when Jameis Winston throws an interception that Green Bay returned quite a ways, setting up great field position that could've shifted momentum quite a bit. But the Packers were called for roughing the passer, which wiped out the INT and set up the Saints with a 1st-and-goal (they cashed in with a TD and never looked back from there). The call was ATROCIOUS. Absolutely horrendous. Za'Darius Smith hit Winston immediately after he threw the pass. There is no way the hit was late. He leaned in with his shoulder and hit him, then moved over to the side to avoid falling on top of Winston. It was as clean a hit as a player could make, yet it was flagged. What a horrible call.
What's worse is it continues to prove how much the league favors quarterbacks. This weekend I literally saw a handful of defensive players slow down when charging at quarterbacks for fear that they might get flagged for hitting them too hard. If you think quarterbacks today are best quarterbacks in history, you fail to understand how garbage calls and protective rules have altered the game. QBs from yesteryear absolutely would put up the same, if not better, numbers if they played in today's league.
Cincinnati 27, Minnesota 24
There was one game that was directly affected by a bad call. The Vikings had the ball late in overtime and had crossed midfield. Dalvin Cook ran into a crowd for a decent gain, but the Bengals came out of the pile with the football. Replay was inconclusive, so the refs let the call stand. See, the problem with that "let it play out" philosophy is the referees depend on camera angles to catch what really happened. Cook was down, and no one will convince me otherwise. The camera angles sort of showed that, but because it wasn't conclusive enough, the Vikings lost the ball and their shot at winning a game. As much as ties suck in the NFL, that's still better than a loss.
Los Angeles R. 34, Chicago 14
The Rams' new SoFi stadium was incredible. It had a great modern look to it (that scoreboard was sweet). Most of all, it was LOUD. It's great having people in the stands again.
As for the Rams, they got a couple of huge plays that proved to be the difference. Those players were so excited to see Stafford make those plays. It feels like they believe they found their guy to take them to the promised land. And wouldn't you know it, SoFi stadium is hosting the Super Bowl this year. For the first time in decades we had a team play on its home field in the Super Bowl last year in Tampa Bay. All of a sudden, the Rams very much could be the second team in as many years to accomplish that.
Speaking of the Rams, the NFC West clearly is the best division in football. It's going to be a blood bath getting to the top of the standings in that division.